Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

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Mossdancer
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Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby Mossdancer » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:56 pm

If the following chart were held as true and the same appraising method used would the same knife that was appraised in 1997 be currently appraised as the chart indicates. What do some of you think?

U.S. Inflation Rate, $100 in 1997 to 2018
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index, prices in 2018 are 57.00% higher than prices in 1997. The dollar experienced an average inflation rate of 2.87% per year during this period.

In other words, $100 in 1997 is equivalent in purchasing power to $157.00 in 2018, a difference of $57.00 over 21 years.

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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby Gunsil » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:42 am

No. In general many collectible prices have gone down, some considerably since the 2008 recession. This does not apply evenly in the case of knives but is still true. There is mostly the "desirability factor" in which some makers brands and some knife patterns go in and out of "style" as time progresses. One instance is Remington hunting knives which have dropped in popularity and value in the last ten years. Many other knives have suffered also and some patterns and brands have increased in value. The advent of the internet also has affected the price of collectible knives since 1997. What many once considered rare knives suddenly became not so rare when lots of knives came for sale on ebay and other internet shopping sites, dropping prices. Truly mint, truly rare patterns by famous brands are the most stable and maintain and increase in value while much of the "regular" grades of knives have not held their value well over the last ten years.

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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby Mumbleypeg » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:49 am

Gunsil wrote:Truly mint, truly rare patterns by famous brands are the most stable and maintain and increase in value.


Well stated, but IMHO even most of those have not kept pace with inflation. There are of course exceptions.

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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby Sharpnshinyknives » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:14 am

You have to also consider the rapid inflation we experienced in commodities back in 2007. That increase was followed by a drop in commodity prices during the financial crisis and a global slow down. Metals, oil, corn soybeans, etc hit highs in the run up to 2007 and 2008 but they fell a lot after that. I remember at the time being perplexed by Bokers. The Euro was rising rapidly against the dollar back then and commodity prices of metals climbing higher and higher and yet Boker prices remained stable. Given the currency difference and the metals prices Bokers should have gone up dramatically but they didn’t. Why? Manufacturers can change something to make their product cheaper to produce to buffer the inflation that is raising their prices too much.
After 26 years of managing other peoples monies, watching markets and keeping a keen eye on economic indicators. I can tell you that the inflation charts are pretty far off. The government counts inflation one way for certain things, overall inflation and then they strip out food, gas, utilities, health care and more to figure core inflation. Guess which one they use to calculate your social security inflation increase? Core of course, it isn’t as realistic and is always lower.
I can’t figure out all the inflation Mickey Mouse tricks that are played. A few things I have found is inflation does not move in a straight line, people adjust their living to compensate for inflation, the govt lies about inflation and trying to invest in commodities is a losing game.
With that said. I do believe that as knife prices rise, your collection should rise w/ that,unless you have a lot of hard to figure old knives.
I watch what prices Case raises their knives by each year. A Case trapper that cost 35 dollars new in 1997 and now cost 55 dollars means that mine which is mint in box is worth more than 35 dollars today and you bet I won’t take 35 for it. From the stand point of knives like Case, I think you can count on a certain measure of price increase over time, simply based on the current prices that same knife is selling for today. So I think you can be safe that some of your knives will follow the price increases of the knife makers. Others are more supply and demand driven, rarity, technology and other factor driven as the one who posted above said.
Sorry for going on so long. This topic is right in my wheel house and I couldn’t help it.
Mark

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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby Gunsil » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:15 am

American made Bowie knives from the early days of these type of knives, and those made in San Francisco during the gold rush days are certainly some of the exceptions. A beautiful Samuel Bell Bowie brought over $100,000 at auction last spring.

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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby Mossdancer » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:17 am

Thanks to all for your replies. Hope that they keep on coming as it helps people to excercise their mind with some real thought.
Gunsil, the opining you have entered. All of it is correct. I do believe a portion of it would have lowered or raised the price of the original appraisal so neither would it affect the new one. Some of the other portions of would have affected even though these things happened later and the new cost basis would follow through. I think the rest of you see where I am going, the value of the property did not change only the value of the dollar.
Retirement income, isn't it strange how SSI went up to the dollar as Medicare did. Result no raise.other than to pay for insurance. Mark does it seem strange that the price increase from $35 to $55 is near exactly a 57% increase. Think of that for a bit and then let us know how 2007 did not have more of a deleterious effect on the rate that the other 9 years.
Lets have some more opinions.
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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby TwoFlowersLuggage » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:09 am

I think treating any collection as an investment is a very dangerous game. Only history can tell you whether the price you pay today for a collectible is smart or foolish.
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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby kenb » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:00 am

TwoFlowersLuggage wrote:I think treating any collection as an investment is a very dangerous game. Only history can tell you whether the price you pay today for a collectible is smart or foolish.


I'm with you on that. I collect guns and knives, but not on an investment basis. I buy what appeals to me and makes me happy. If it goes up in value someone else will benefit from it when I'm gone.

Ken

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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby jerryd6818 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:06 pm

kenb wrote:I buy what appeals to me and makes me happy. If it goes up in value someone else will benefit from it when I'm gone.

Ken

Ditto.
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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby jmh58 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:30 pm

jerryd6818 wrote:
kenb wrote:I buy what appeals to me and makes me happy. If it goes up in value someone else will benefit from it when I'm gone.

Ken

Ditto.


Me too!! 8) John :D
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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby bighomer » Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:03 pm

Me also too, I doubt seriously my hoard ever increases, but I don't care I enjoy it. I've accumulated a lot of crap such as belt buckles and base ball type caps and toys that are worthless to anyone but me. ::shrug::

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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby kootenay joe » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:29 pm

What interests me is the future of knife collecting. In 20 years time will there be more interest in knives & collecting, or less interest ?
I'm sure the top examples will always have buyers, but what about the 'lesser' examples that most of us have in our collections ?
If in 20 years' time there are fewer knife collectors than now, our knives will have little value.
Based on prices for vintage folding knives it seems there are fewer collectors now than 20 years ago. Will this downward drift continue ?
kj

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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby Sharpnshinyknives » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:33 pm

Whether or not a collection goes up in value will depend on a lot of factors. Too many to detail here. The reason you collect determines a lot when it comes to future value. If you get into a bidding war w/ someone on eBay for a certain knife that you want or are looking for, then no it probably won’t go up, because you are paying too much up front. Or if you buy knives because they are cheap or because they are old and think you have undiscovered gem here, then you will most likely be disappointed. You see that all the time on eBay, someone calling an old Imperial knife “rare” just because it’s old and asking the sky for it. That’s a losing proposition. Buying what strikes your fancy is fine, if that is your motivation, and making a return on investment isn’t a factor for you.
But I do think that inflation can drive the value of a collection up. As I stated earlier, inflation is a strange thing when it’s measured because it doesn’t work they way the charts look. Just the cost of raw material going up over time should drive some value. Price increases by the manufacturer over time will drive the value as well. How much value in the future? I don’t know. But as I stated before, my silver and gold investments have done terribly, I bought them when the price was coming off the all time high, but I had no idea it had that much more value to lose. So here I am 7 years later and I am still at a big loss on that. Same could happen to knife values I suppose, but not nearly as likely. How many times have you seen Case lower prices from one year to the next? When you see knives lowered in price it usually means the manufacturing is being done somewhere less expensive and I think I know how most of us feel about that.
So the bottom line for me is this: I collect to both satisfy my liking for this hobby, but I also collect w/ an eye on the future value of my collection. If I thought that all my purchases where a losing proposition, I would stop wasting my money.

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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby terryl308 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:22 pm

I doubt that knives will increase or keep up with inflation, you had better enjoy the hunt and buy the best quality knife you can afford. Condition means a lot. I buy a few "boxes" of knives at auctions from time to time, just to take home and go through them and see what I got. Still haven't found a ten dollar Scagel that was found in a old barn only to find out later that it was worth $20000. But I enjoy the hunt. ::ds:: Terry
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Re: Knife Price 1997 vs 2018

Postby Mossdancer » Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:39 am

"But I do think that inflation can drive the value of a collection up". As I stated earlier, inflation is a strange thing when it’s measured because it doesn’t work they way the charts look. Is it not correct that you have to reach the purported rate of inflation plus some for the value to increase.

Here is one of my thoughts about buying knives. The persons on a large site such as this who get that gazillion dollar knife for a buck and then cant wait to blow and go to the entire knife community about what a buy some unknowing seller
gave them. I say leave your story at home. A good deal is great but let your integrity tell you when your taking it to far.
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