Why Ebay is probably not a good place for price discovery

[Mumbleypeg]

I get the point but still think eBay sold listings is a good place to send the typical "drive by" poster on AAPK asking "what's this knife worth". I've never understood the "logic" of going to an online forum and asking a total stranger for a value estimate. They're not likely to join a FB group and spend hours there waiting for an item like their knife to be sold, or spend the money to subscribe to a monthly/quarterly newsletter (or buy a 10 year old book for that matter).

Lots of valid points raised in this thread but no options for the typical one-time poster who wants a value for grandpa's knife, or a knife they found somewhere. Where else do you send them?

Ken

[bestgear]

I get the point but still think eBay sold listings is a good place to send the typical "drive by" poster on AAPK asking "what's this knife worth".

I agree 100% Ken. Mark’s original post asked “ When someone asks about the price of a knife, one common answer is to check eBay’s sold listings to find the price range, which can be extreme at times.” I agree 100% with Mark too.

The reality is, the poster is just looking for a ballpark so they don’t wind up giving it away for less than it’s worth, period. For that use case, sold eBay listings are perfectly fine and appropriate.

[Dinadan]

So, obviously this one is an outlier.

And yet it is a real data point, not just a guess. I prefer data to guesses. I also realize that an auction is not a scientific experiment, and that unlike a carefully designed and executed experiment, the results will not always be consistent.

The reality is, the poster is just looking for a ballpark so they don’t wind up giving it away for less than it’s worth, period. For that use case, sold eBay listings are perfectly fine and appropriate.

Good point. I note that in a recent thread where a value was requested, the OP had three responses. He thanked the member who posted the highest value and ignored the two who posted a lower value. I kind of feel like that OP should do his own research.

[Reverand]

I have noticed that there are many people who will ask questions, rather than try to look up something for themselves. I often see people on Facebook who will ask the hours of operation to a local business. They will ask others, when they could more easily Google the information that they want!
I believe that some people want the conversation as much as they want the answers.
Or, maybe, they consider research to be too much work.
I don't know why, I just see that trend.
Anyway, I see eBay as a tool for research; one whose information is only as good as the researcher who interprets it.

[Sharpnshinyknives]

Here is another example of an extreme price: https://www.ebay.com/itm/336210733931?m ... &recoPos=1
This is a S&M quart barlow. They made 600 of these and sold originally for about 100 dollars or so. Not rare and not modified. Just two bidders fighting it out over this one. I wish I could have known who they were and I would have offered mine to them for about half of that 335 it sold for.


Those trapper locks aren’t being made any more Q, that is probably part of the reason that went for so much. That still is way too high though. You could buy a nice TB Case knife for that, I would take a TB Case over that any day.

[Rookie]

Another factor to consider are the shill bidders who are there just to run the price up as high as possible. It happens on both Ebay and Facebook live auctions. Ebay lets you at least see how often a certain bidder is buying from a certain seller, so you can maybe start to see trends. And I know with certainty at least one Facebook live seller who has a couple buddies run the price up. If they win, they don't get billed, and the knife will come up again for sale a week later.

[kennedy knives]

There's anywhere from 8-10 Facebook knife auction every night,some even run during the day.90% are Case knives and a large percentage are totally dependent on the most recent "Case Price Guide".If they can buy a knife for 3/4 of guide price, they think they got a good deal.
I would venture a guess that more collectable knives trade hands on FB,than ebay.

Ditto

[bestgear]

There's anywhere from 8-10 Facebook knife auction every night,some even run during the day.90% are Case knives and a large percentage are totally dependent on the most recent "Case Price Guide".If they can buy a knife for 3/4 of guide price, they think they got a good deal.
I would venture a guess that more collectable knives trade hands on FB,than ebay.

Ditto

X2!

[OLDE CUTLER]

So, obviously this one is an outlier.

And yet it is a real data point, not just a guess. I prefer data to guesses. I also realize that an auction is not a scientific experiment, and that unlike a carefully designed and executed experiment, the results will not always be consistent.

The reality is, the poster is just looking for a ballpark so they don’t wind up giving it away for less than it’s worth, period. For that use case, sold eBay listings are perfectly fine and appropriate.

Good point. I note that in a recent thread where a value was requested, the OP had three responses. He thanked the member who posted the highest value and ignored the two who posted a lower value. I kind of feel like that OP should do his own research.

That's what they are going to do on Ebay, AAPK stores, or other online prices. They will take the highest price and that is what theirs is worth regardless of condition. Kind of kills me sometimes when 1 timers ask what's it worth without even a picture.

[GSPTOPDOG]

Here is another example of an extreme price: https://www.ebay.com/itm/336210733931?

Mark, one problem I have encountered is that when I go to an estate sale, yard sale or swap meet/flea market, I pick up a knife from a table and ask the price and I hear: "I looked it up and it is going for $50 on eBay so I want $50 it. That is the price!!!" The only problem is that the tip of the blade has been snapped off, the left scale is cracked in 3 places and big chip is missing from the right side as well. The knife on eBay was in mint condition, however, the seller des NOT collect knives and cannot see the difference between "mint'' and "thrashed" So, I have found that on-line prices have ruined local purchases for me.

I went to an "antique upscale flea market" last weekend. I saw very high to ridicules prices on every knife there and I went home w/o spending $0.10
At one table the seller had several old Imperial Jack knives, with wear and rust and lots of use. Something that I would pay $5 for at the most. All of his Imperial knives were marked $35. Come on man!!! ... A few years ago, I always found several items to buy that I thought were good deals. I always came home with something (knives, axes, machetes, tools, etc... etc...) Now the good deals appear to be all gone...

[Sharpnshinyknives]

Here is another example of an extreme price: https://www.ebay.com/itm/336210733931?

Mark, one problem I have encountered is that when I go to an estate sale, yard sale or swap meet/flea market, I pick up a knife from a table and ask the price and I hear: "I looked it up and it is going for $50 on eBay so I want $50 it. That is the price!!!" The only problem is that the tip of the blade has been snapped off, the left scale is cracked in 3 places and big chip is missing from the right side as well. The knife on eBay was in mint condition, however, the seller des NOT collect knives and cannot see the difference between "mint'' and "thrashed" So, I have found that on-line prices have ruined local purchases for me.

I went to an "antique upscale flea market" last weekend. I saw very high to ridicules prices on every knife there and I went home w/o spending $0.10
At one table the seller had several old Imperial Jack knives, with wear and rust and lots of use. Something that I would pay $5 for at the most. All of his Imperial knives were marked $35. Come on man!!! ... A few years ago, I always found several items to buy that I thought were good deals. I always came home with something (knives, axes, machetes, tools, etc... etc...) Now the good deals appear to be all gone...

That’s an issue I never thought about GSP. I can see how that would make problems for buyers at events like this. Those are some ridiculous prices for those knives, especially in those conditions.

[GSPTOPDOG]

Here is another example of an extreme price: https://www.ebay.com/itm/336210733931?

That’s an issue I never thought about GSP. I can see how that would make problems for buyers at events like this. Those are some ridiculous prices for those knives, especially in those conditions.

I collect belt buckles and I am very tuned into the values of a wide variety of buckles. At one time I had around 350-400 buckles in my collection. I go to the "antique upscale flea market" and I see a buckle on a table marked $85. The guy selling it says "We look everything up on Ebay and then sell our stuff for a little bit less. That buckle is going for $125 on eBay" That buckle was worth about $10 maybe $5 to really move it. You can look on eBay for anything and you can find one crazy listing for a crazy price and that will never sell in 100 years unless some fool buys it.

However, the bad effect of all of that is people start to believe in unrealistic values of the item they are trying to sell. It has ruined the thrift stores in my town as well ... most of them "look everything up" and price the items accordingly... ... I go to a thrift store to buy a well-used Case XX trapper for $5-$10 bucks not $50-$75 ....

[Rookie]

That’s an issue I never thought about GSP. I can see how that would make problems for buyers at events like this. Those are some ridiculous prices for those knives, especially in those conditions.

I collect belt buckles and I am very tuned into the values of a wide variety of buckles. At one time I had around 350-400 buckles in my collection. I go to the "antique upscale flea market" and I see a buckle on a table marked $85. The guy selling it says "We look everything up on Ebay and then sell our stuff for a little bit less. That buckle is going for $125 on eBay" That buckle was worth about $10 maybe $5 to really move it. You can look on eBay for anything and you can find one crazy listing for a crazy price and that will never sell in 100 years unless some fool buys it.

However, the bad effect of all of that is people start to believe in unrealistic values of the item they are trying to sell. It has ruined the thrift stores in my town as well ... most of them "look everything up" and price the items accordingly... ... I go to a thrift store to buy a well-used Case XX trapper for $5-$10 bucks not $50-$75 ....

Ya it's really mindblowing. I was at an estate auction that advertised there was a good size knife collection, pieced out individually. I ended up buying nothing. Case XX stockman from the 1980s, delrin handles with cracks, heavily used/sharpened blades, rusty from sitting for 20 years, and there were guys bidding it up to 2-3x more than it was worth. You could go buy a brand new Case stockman knife for that price. I just roll my eyes wondering where people's brains are.

These same guys bidding that much are driving vehicles that look to need a few thousand dollars worth of work just to pass the yearly state vehicle inspection.

[Lansky1]

when I was buying and selling routinely to build up my late model Case collection (it was so much easier to "recycle" money back into the hobby back when Paypal was king)... I always found completed auction prices to be a fairly good gage of what any particular common knife should bring. Particularly for Case's as so many hunt them. If you deal in high dollar collectible vintage knives, I wouldn't place as much stock in completed auctions ... but from what I've witnessed, it's actually pretty good for the most part aside from the occasional outlier, as Q mentioned.

[Lansky1]

Another factor to consider are the shill bidders who are there just to run the price up as high as possible. It happens on both Ebay and Facebook live auctions. Ebay lets you at least see how often a certain bidder is buying from a certain seller, so you can maybe start to see trends. And I know with certainty at least one Facebook live seller who has a couple buddies run the price up. If they win, they don't get billed, and the knife will come up again for sale a week later.

indeed - I've seen that quite a bit. Often its the bidder with 0 feedback (obviously a shill account) that repeatedly bids up a sellers auction. Pretty easy to spot. As you said the "buddies" that bid up auctions are tougher to realize - fact that they relist the knife shortly after is a dead giveaway.