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Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:21 pm
by OldToenailCollector
I wasn't 'round knife collecting during the last big recession of the late 80's and early 90's, so have to ask- What do you remember about its impact on collecting knives back then (not the everyday carry knife, but hobby of collecting purchases)?

Anyone noticing its impact on knife sales on eBay- either in the prices (increase or decrease), or the number of knife auctions (more or fewer)? What about knife shows business? I don't want to debate the politics of the economic downtown we are experiencing, but trying to get a feel for its impact (may be THE prime time to buy, eh?)

I know my questions don't tend to be specific knife related so don't kick me off this great place to talk about what is going on in the knife world.

Thanks for your experiences and observations-
(sorry if I posted this in the wrong area. If you wish to move it that is fine).

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 4:25 am
by Forensic Jim
Scott at the present time I'd say it's a buyers market and a sellers nightmare. The summer months are typically the worst months to sell on eBay, but starting this month things should improve with people spending more time indoors and on the computer. I'd have to say that knife sales in general are way down because of the economy. When people have to make a choice between gas, food and other necessities, they don't have extra income to buy knives. Of course someone else might see it differently, but that's just my opinion. ::shrug::

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 1:24 pm
by Oman
I agree. I do not have alot of $$ to spend on things other than life's neccesaties. (sp)
But I'm picking up some real nice knives at, what I think, are good prices and maybe sell around the holidaze. Besides it is fun to look at knives I would not ordinarily have a chance to see. Of course ther are a few(!!!) that i will keep to pass on.

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 5:27 pm
by Knifekid
The market is certainly off considerbly from this time last year. However, it hasn't affected all markets. Although summer is the slowest time of year, some of my sales have held steady. Almost all of my low end ($100.00 and less) knives are moving at almost the same pace as last year. My high end knives ($1,000.00 and up) are holding just fine. It seems the middle of the road stuff is suffering more than anything else.

I deal more in Randalls than anything else and that market has shifted downward quite a bit in the last year or so. Two problems here, economy and availibility. A year ago I could put a new Randall on my web site for 35% above catalog price and it wouldn't last more than an hour. In fact, most of the one's I sold was to Ebay knife sellers who would grab them off my site and take them straight to ebay. They were selling there for 50 to 60% over catalog, that is no longer the case. At present I'm selling new Randalls at 25% over catalog and some will sit on my site for a month or so. I have noticed that Randalls on ebay are now selling for 25 to 40% above catalog on average. Since they are moving slower there are more on the market to pick from hence, the availibility.

I also sell a lot of slightly older Case knives, that market is a bit slow but the prices have held close to what they were. The shows are a different story altogether, they are slow. Not nealy as many people are showing up...gas??? A lot of the folks that are showing up are wanting to trade instead of buying, which is fine but, it tells you the money is tight. When I set up at shows, I mostly sell to other dealers so my business has remained steady in that regard.

While I don't sell on ebay (BECAUSE I HATE THEM) I do watch it. It appears to me that's it's down across the board and I would think that's it's the economy that's caused it. I could actually write for hours on the ebay subject (BECAUSE I HATE THEM) alone but, would bore you guys to death. If it wasn't for having so many friends that either buy or sell there, it would tickle me to see ebay go away altoghther (BECAUSE I HATE THEM).

I do remember that last recession but, I was a collector during that time. Didn't see much change then, knives just seemed to sell slower. I do remember a lot of collections coming up for sale during that time. Oddly, there doesn't seem to be many coming out for sale lately though. I talk to dealers from all over the country every day and there doesn't seem to be much coming out of the woodwork lately.

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 5:45 pm
by OldToenailCollector
Thanks guys for your thoughts and perspective. I am not seeing any liquidating toes and don't expect to, but wondered how things looked out there across this great Country for our hobby.

If anyone else wants to add to this post, please do.

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:53 pm
by edgy46
From my point of view as a buyer I do not see any prices going down. I do see fewer people at the Sat. show in W. Carrolton Ohio.

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:03 am
by roberts661
Just got done with a gun show this weekend.Didn't realize it was a holiday when I made the rez.Less new faces came in.My biggest worry was the lack of interest by young boys in the knives on display.Thank God for the grandpas that brought them in.What didn't help was the dealer selling the un-branded copies of name brands for $6-2/$10.Also it was 106 on Sat.and 103 on Sun.Our fairgrounds only has swamp coolers.Still it was a good weekend for me as it's only a retired hobby and I scored six great deals from gun dealers looking for table rent.All USA made!

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:17 am
by TM
I gotta' agree with edgy46 - from my perspective as a buyer, I don't see the price of knives going down at all. If anything, they're more expensive now than they've ever been.

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:23 am
by Diligence
First off, I'm not a collector...just a liker, fixer and user.

I think one other thing is impacting knife sales. Bad press. Every time I turn around, there's something else in the news about a "wicked knife" being used by a "bad guy".

Just look to the recent beheading on the Greyhound bus in Manitoba, Canada. (do a google search, gruesome story) Now, even my little, itty bitty SAK might be verboten soon...who knows.

Around my office, my little Harness jack gets attention....god forbid anybody actually sees the full size Benchmade that I EDC inside waist band...

The times, they are a changin.....

Jaye

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 3:28 pm
by TM
This is an interesting topic, and it got me thinking about knife prices in general.........

Since I started buying/collecting pocket knives, one of the things that has always seemed weird to me is the inconsistent prices I see for the same knife - and the way knife dealers just let their inventories gather dust because of some imagined value, instead of trying to adjust their prices for current value - which means you might have to lose a little of that profit margin.

Now, I know there is a big difference between vintage stuff and new - I'm speaking mainly of the new.

Most business would agree that a 12% to 15% return on your investment is good; but it seems to me that most knife dealers are pricing their inventory much higher than that.

Here's a couple of examples of bad business (IMO, of course) that I have run across:

A hardware store in my town sells Case knives. They have a plain ol' amber bone moose for sale and they're asking $67(!) for it. Almost anyplace online sells the same knife for about $44 and some offer free shipping. So, I have to wonder - If the guy online can make a profit from the $44 markup price, than what was the wholesale price?! By the way, I offered to buy that knife for $45, but they didn't sell it and months later it sits there still........

Another store I visit that has a large selection of Case knives (Case calls them a 'Master Dealer') that range from new production to recently discontinued stuff that is 7 - 8 years old. They have the same inflated prices and the knives just sit there lookin' pretty......

Why can 1 guy online offer a GEC Scout for $53 and another guy sells the same knife for $78?!

If anybody can make any sense out of this, I'm all ears.

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 3:58 pm
by jonet143
brickfront stores don't have the same profit margin. overhead.

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:42 pm
by TM
hey johnnie - I understand what you're saying about the brickfronts, but the places I'm talking about sell other stuff besides knives, so it's not like they depend on the knives to stay in business. Also, if you've got a lot of merchandise that just sits there, whether it's knives or tools or pipe fittings, wouldn't common sense tell you you might need to think about the prices you're asking?

What about those GEC Scouts. Both of those prices were online. There's a big gap between $53 and $78.

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:14 pm
by jonet143
retail stores selling a variety of products directly to walk in consumers often have prices above online sellers for specific products. convenience, immediate need, impulse buying, all factor in to their bottom line, profit. they also generally have to pay for products before they are sold. a lot of items(including knives) are kept on hand for added incentive for customers to buy.
online sellers have their own agenda and reasons for price differences. some use formulas or the msrp to determine the selling price and others wing it. if you feel a price is too high, you pass on it and keep looking. i have seen several "free shipping" sites as well, but the prices advertised are higher than others who charge for shipping. in most cases it is simply a marketing tool.

as for our economy impacting our hobby... yes it does! there is less disposible income. inflation is eating it away at an alarming rate.

oh yeah, jmo. :lol:

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:12 pm
by Knifekid
I think I can respond to most of this but, hang with me. My Dr. changed my medications around last week and I'm more goofy than normal. Johnnie was right about the the storeront, rent is expensive.

A 10
to 15% return was mentioned, I don't know anyone who could survive on 12 to 15% gross profit, most folks overhead runs around 20% before you consider any profit. Also, a return is not the same thing as mark up. If you want a 33% return your mark up would be 50%. In other words if you buy it for $100.00 and sell it for $150.00 your return is $50.00 or 33%.

I try to get by on an average mark up of 25%, some knives are a bit more a some a bit less. Just to give you an idea my monthly costs are as follows:

Rent 500.00
ISP 125.00 (that includes Cable tv in the office as well)
Web Master 35.00
Phone 300.00 (I have an 800 number)
Insurance 375.00 (fire, theft, libility)
Advertising 325.00 (I have a couple of banner ads on other web sites)
Office supplies 50.00 (paper, ink jets, misc.)
Fuel 50.00 (have to drive to the post office)
Electric 75.00 (got to have the lights on)

That's $1,835.00 before I consider office equipment or paying any hired help. That means I have to sell at least $10,000.00 per month to break even. If I want to get paid anything for myself I have to sell a lot more than that.

This, of course, is just me and not speaking for anyone else. I know a lot of dealers, some try to get weathly on every knife and some are happy if they make $1.00. There are quite a few dealers on the internet that are only selling to keep the cost of their own collecting down.

The big difference you see in the GEC prices is because of the aforementioned. Some folks need to make 50% and others are content with 5%. When GEC started they really didn't have set guidelines for their dealers and distributors. They have since set those guidelines and I think prices on their new offerings will be closer between the dealers than before. A lot of us have put GEC's from 2006 and 2007 on sale just moving older inventory as well.

I know I've rambled in my drug induced state but, hope that I've helped some too.

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:56 pm
by TM
hey Perry - maybe if you kicked that drug addiction, you might not have to charge so much for your knives :lol: :lol: :lol:

I was trying to use 12%-15% as a net profit amount - not the mark up - I forgot about subtracting operating expense from the mark up, in order to maintain that profit amount. So, I guess you would have to mark up more. I think that makes sense now.... ::dang:: So, Perry - if you shoot for a 25% mark up, what % of profit do you get from that?

I work for a small, privately owned business and I am constantly reminded how expensive it is to run it; rent, advertising, insurance, utilities and payroll. Thanks for your honest response. I prefer to support individual and small business ::tu::

Johnnie, I think you're right about sellers having their own agendas. I guess us buyers just have to keep shopping until we find the right deal 8)

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:58 pm
by OldToenailCollector
Good discussion Guys.

I don't sell knives, except for dups from my collection so I may be wet here but as I see it-

The Knife Industry is made of up knife manufacturers down through the dealers all the way to the collectors. I know there are price variations between knife manufacturers- from startup firms with low margins and just trying to get a foot hold to old established brands trying to fight off the imported knives (and working hard to survive). The collector/hobby side of it is quite another matter, from dealers who are semi-collectors who will "take a knife off the market" when he/she can't get their price, down to volume sellers.

I also think the online venue of selling knives for many firms is a low-overhead, almost no inventory seller who keeps inventory orders (from his supplier) tight and can therefore turn knives with lower margins.

I would be curious as the market share online "knife companies" have as compared to the bricks and mortar stores. I bet it is higher than we would think and trending up. I am also guessing local hardware stores (not counting the national chains (Home Depot, Lowes, Sears, WalMarts, etc), are a dying bread and probably sale the largest share of knives from among the bricks and mortar stores.

Sound like knife companies need to sure up their distribution lines and work the nationals, otherwise, they need to sell online direct to the consumer.

As I travel around the country I have actually looked for bricks and mortar knife stores and rarely found any, except for the Walmarts of the world, but rarely find a knife speciality shop.

Re: Economy's Impact Our Hobby?

Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:07 pm
by TM
OldToenailCollector wrote:I would be curious as the market share online "knife companies" have as compared to the bricks and mortar stores. I bet it is higher than we would think and trending up. I am also guessing local hardware stores (not counting the national chains (Home Depot, Lowes, Sears, WalMarts, etc), are a dying bread and probably are sell the largest share of knives from among the bricks and mortar stores.

Sound like knife companies need to sure up their distribution lines and work the nationals, otherwise, they need to sell online direct to the consumer.
I think you're right on target, OTC