Predicting GEC sale prices

GEC specializes in highly collectable and premium quality usable pocket knives. The company's USA manufactured knives have quickly proven to be a big hit with both collectors and users who seek quality American craftsmanship.
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Eye Brand Man
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Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by Eye Brand Man »

Like to get other's opinions or perditions on were GEC prices are trending. Now I know this will be pure speculation and there will be know right or wrong answers, just like to here what other people have to say.

Say a person had a sizable amount of desirable GEC knives, would you sell now? Or hold on to them? Do you think they will continue to go up or plateau and possibly crash?

Maybe you'd sell the GEC's and reinvest in mint condition old knives?

Just something I've been giving a lot of thought to and interested to here other's thoughts.
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by Doc B »

That's a good question and wish I had a crystal ball! There are certainly crazy prices right now. I think we are at a "pivotal" point and not sure how many and what patterns GEC will be producing, since deleting the SFO's. I think the demand for their knives is just now getting a foothold, in the younger, tactical crowd. I've never sold one, until I saw the 66 OD green micarta go for over $400. I figured if anyone wanted one that bad...I'd put it out there. Got $460 of the "bay". Don't understand that at all! I'm not sure it will maintain that value...but; a few have wanted it pretty bad.
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Railsplitter
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by Railsplitter »

I'd sell now while the selling's good. Waiting might only make you wish you hadn't.

An increase in value after I sell wouldn't bother me as much as a decrease in value before I sell.
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by tallguy606 »

Lots of things are in a price "bubble" right now. Look at the prices of any used guns, almost all ammo (except shotgun shells, for some reason), and real estate in the suburbs. Half of California moving to Texas. But unlike land - where "they're not making any more of it" - knives can always be produced. Maybe the younger guys are getting interested in traditional knives. But will it continue? Prices for Model 12 Winchester pump guns have gone down, down, down as us old guys who love blue steel and walnut guns stop hunting or pass away. A famous stock market guy said "no one was ever went broke taking a profit."
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by Sharpnshinyknives »

I think selling now is the smart thing to do. I have moved my time line up for selling some of my GEC knives. I have been listing ones I intended to hold onto, but when you see them going for 400 plus, I say you gotta try and ride that train.
I do think that stimulus money is to thank for a lot of this.
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by Mumbleypeg »

Railsplitter wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:04 pm I'd sell now while the selling's good. Waiting might only make you wish you hadn't.

An increase in value after I sell wouldn't bother me as much as a decrease in value before I sell.
My thoughts exactly. I’d rather be kicking myself saying I could have made more, than kicking myself saying I wish I had sold when..........

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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by texoma »

I’m a collector and user and I’m keeping the GEC knives I want that I paid retail and probably more than I should that were purchased at a premium. The other knives I paid a premium I’ve been selling off to hopefully get even or a small profit. I keep saying the prices have peaked and keep calling it wrong, they just keep going higher. If you paid retail for a GEC knife you will do just fine but the premium prices could bite you one day. If you’re a flipper like a lot of members here and other forums yes this is a good time to sell. I miss the days of fair trades and sales and sadly I’m guilty of selling higher because of it but still like fair trades.
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by kootenay joe »

It is the same as the stock market, predictions have about a 50% chance of being right or wrong.
Not all GEC knives sell above original price. You can search ebay to find which patterns or handle materials are in this group.
For the ones that are selling high now is a good time to 'unload'. It might not be the very peak of the market but the principle of "always leave a little in it for the next guy" is safer way to go and your profits now will still be doubles, triples or even more with certain knives.
Maybe keep just a few for your own enjoyment.
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by knife_fan »

Honestly the knives aren't worth what people are asking for them now. They're high now because people don't like to be told they can't have something, so they shell out more to have said item.

This issue started when flippers started buying the knives and listing them on eBay. Collectors couldn't get the knife they planned on getting so rather than refuse to buy the knives which would leave the flippers stuck with them, and dissuade them from buying more to flip, instead fed the flippers because they just had to have the knife. Now everyone is seeing how crazy people are for over paying for the knives, and they are now becoming flippers to take advantage of the situation.

I'd be shocked if the prices go higher, at that point you could just get a custom knife, not a production knife made with 1095 blade steel. I see this whole situation starting to tarnish the GEC brand. People are turning to other companies to fill their knife obsession. If GEC doesn't do something to try to curb the situation they could lose even more customers.
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by Rotten »

GEC is not going to lose any customers. Because other than the factory store they don't sell to the general public. All their production goes straight to dealers. Some of those dealers do their best at least IMO to give everyone a fair chance to get in on the drops. I have no doubt that as the secondary market prices have skyrocketed some of the dealers have begun to collude with the flippers to insure maximum profit for themselves. One dealer has gone as far as charging near flipper prices in order to thwart the flippers, what scares me is that even with his increased price he sold out in under a minute. Are the rest of the dealers just going to sit around forever and watch others pocket the profit? We have to continue to support the dealers who do their best to try and get the knives into the hands of user/collectors not flippers.

I don't think there is anything GEC can do about the market for their product. Although I would love to hear Bill Howard's thoughts on the subject he would be smart to leave it alone and just keep making the finest traditional knives and let things sort themselves out on there own.

I don't see the prices falling anytime soon and to me it boils down to the fact that there are such limited numbers of some knives. Take for example the current craze over the OD green micarta 66. There were 266 of them produced. Lets say that there are 25,000 dedicated knife collectors in the USA. That means that 1.064% of the collector community can actually own one. Somewhere in the 25,000 collector number are a few folks who have enough finances that no price is going to be a barrier to acquisition. Then look at the 2013 African Blackwood Abilene, there are only 52 of them on the planet meaning that out of the same 25,000 collectors only 0.208% of them can actually own one. What's funny to me is that 1 of the 7 Maroon Micarta 66 Calf Roper made in 2017 sold in October 2020 for only $250, out of our hypothetical 25,000 collectors that's a 0.028% ownership rate. People aren't buying rarity right now, whats going to happen when people start studying the production totals more closely.

If I could predict the markets I'd be a stock broker. If you want the money then sell the knife. If you want the knife keep the knife. It's that simple.
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by edge213 »

Rotten wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:24 pm GEC is not going to lose any customers. Because other than the factory store they don't sell to the general public. All their production goes straight to dealers. Some of those dealers do their best at least IMO to give everyone a fair chance to get in on the drops. I have no doubt that as the secondary market prices have skyrocketed some of the dealers have begun to collude with the flippers to insure maximum profit for themselves. One dealer has gone as far as charging near flipper prices in order to thwart the flippers, what scares me is that even with his increased price he sold out in under a minute. Are the rest of the dealers just going to sit around forever and watch others pocket the profit? We have to continue to support the dealers who do their best to try and get the knives into the hands of user/collectors not flippers.

I don't think there is anything GEC can do about the market for their product. Although I would love to hear Bill Howard's thoughts on the subject he would be smart to leave it alone and just keep making the finest traditional knives and let things sort themselves out on there own.

I don't see the prices falling anytime soon and to me it boils down to the fact that there are such limited numbers of some knives. Take for example the current craze over the OD green micarta 66. There were 266 of them produced. Lets say that there are 25,000 dedicated knife collectors in the USA. That means that 1.064% of the collector community can actually own one. Somewhere in the 25,000 collector number are a few folks who have enough finances that no price is going to be a barrier to acquisition. Then look at the 2013 African Blackwood Abilene, there are only 52 of them on the planet meaning that out of the same 25,000 collectors only 0.208% of them can actually own one. What's funny to me is that 1 of the 7 Maroon Micarta 66 Calf Roper made in 2017 sold in October 2020 for only $250, out of our hypothetical 25,000 collectors that's a 0.028% ownership rate. People aren't buying rarity right now, whats going to happen when people start studying the production totals more closely.

If I could predict the markets I'd be a stock broker. If you want the money then sell the knife. If you want the knife keep the knife. It's that simple.

Good post.
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Rotten
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by Rotten »

edge213 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:52 pm
Rotten wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:24 pm GEC is not going to lose any customers. Because other than the factory store they don't sell to the general public. All their production goes straight to dealers. Some of those dealers do their best at least IMO to give everyone a fair chance to get in on the drops. I have no doubt that as the secondary market prices have skyrocketed some of the dealers have begun to collude with the flippers to insure maximum profit for themselves. One dealer has gone as far as charging near flipper prices in order to thwart the flippers, what scares me is that even with his increased price he sold out in under a minute. Are the rest of the dealers just going to sit around forever and watch others pocket the profit? We have to continue to support the dealers who do their best to try and get the knives into the hands of user/collectors not flippers.

I don't think there is anything GEC can do about the market for their product. Although I would love to hear Bill Howard's thoughts on the subject he would be smart to leave it alone and just keep making the finest traditional knives and let things sort themselves out on there own.

I don't see the prices falling anytime soon and to me it boils down to the fact that there are such limited numbers of some knives. Take for example the current craze over the OD green micarta 66. There were 266 of them produced. Lets say that there are 25,000 dedicated knife collectors in the USA. That means that 1.064% of the collector community can actually own one. Somewhere in the 25,000 collector number are a few folks who have enough finances that no price is going to be a barrier to acquisition. Then look at the 2013 African Blackwood Abilene, there are only 52 of them on the planet meaning that out of the same 25,000 collectors only 0.208% of them can actually own one. What's funny to me is that 1 of the 7 Maroon Micarta 66 Calf Roper made in 2017 sold in October 2020 for only $250, out of our hypothetical 25,000 collectors that's a 0.028% ownership rate. People aren't buying rarity right now, whats going to happen when people start studying the production totals more closely.

If I could predict the markets I'd be a stock broker. If you want the money then sell the knife. If you want the knife keep the knife. It's that simple.

Good post.

Thank you sir.
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Eye Brand Man
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by Eye Brand Man »

Thanks for the reply’s guy’s ::tu:: it’s nice to hear everybody’s opinions.
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Re: Predicting GEC sale prices

Post by FallsCreek »

That was a good read !
Rotten wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:30 pm
edge213 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:52 pm
Rotten wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:24 pm GEC is not going to lose any customers. Because other than the factory store they don't sell to the general public. All their production goes straight to dealers. Some of those dealers do their best at least IMO to give everyone a fair chance to get in on the drops. I have no doubt that as the secondary market prices have skyrocketed some of the dealers have begun to collude with the flippers to insure maximum profit for themselves. One dealer has gone as far as charging near flipper prices in order to thwart the flippers, what scares me is that even with his increased price he sold out in under a minute. Are the rest of the dealers just going to sit around forever and watch others pocket the profit? We have to continue to support the dealers who do their best to try and get the knives into the hands of user/collectors not flippers.

I don't think there is anything GEC can do about the market for their product. Although I would love to hear Bill Howard's thoughts on the subject he would be smart to leave it alone and just keep making the finest traditional knives and let things sort themselves out on there own.

I don't see the prices falling anytime soon and to me it boils down to the fact that there are such limited numbers of some knives. Take for example the current craze over the OD green micarta 66. There were 266 of them produced. Lets say that there are 25,000 dedicated knife collectors in the USA. That means that 1.064% of the collector community can actually own one. Somewhere in the 25,000 collector number are a few folks who have enough finances that no price is going to be a barrier to acquisition. Then look at the 2013 African Blackwood Abilene, there are only 52 of them on the planet meaning that out of the same 25,000 collectors only 0.208% of them can actually own one. What's funny to me is that 1 of the 7 Maroon Micarta 66 Calf Roper made in 2017 sold in October 2020 for only $250, out of our hypothetical 25,000 collectors that's a 0.028% ownership rate. People aren't buying rarity right now, whats going to happen when people start studying the production totals more closely.

If I could predict the markets I'd be a stock broker. If you want the money then sell the knife. If you want the knife keep the knife. It's that simple.

Good post.

Thank you sir.
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